74/20 | Research Article | Animal Husbandry Statistics and Computer Applications

Demand and Supply Projections of Livestock and Poultry Products in India

Department of Animal Husbandry Statistics and Computer Applications, Madras Veterinary College, (TANUVAS), Chennai – 600007, Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract

Continuous economic growth and steady increase in per capita income are expected to substantially enhance the demand for livestock products in India. The simple exponential smoothing statistical model was used for projection of the demand for and supply of livestock products in India. The human population was projected for 2020-21, 2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51 to be 1387.561, 1569.016, 1717.645 and 1831.692 million numbers, respectively, using simple exponential smoothing model. The forecasted productions of livestock products for 2020-21, 2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51 were considered as supplies for the respective periods. Both economic and nutritional demands for the livestock products were predicted to increase over years and obviously, the projected nutritional demands for milk, total meat and chicken were found to be higher than that of economic demands for these products in the years 2030, 2040 and 2050. But, the economic demand for egg in India would be more than that of its nutritional demand. India will have surplus milk and eggs in the coming decades (2020-50), irrespective of the way (either economic or nutritional) in which the demand was calculated. But, in case of chicken, India would face an economic deficit up to 2030 and will face a nutritional deficit thereafter up to 2050.

Main Article