101/20 | General Article | Animal Husbandry Statistics and Computer Applications
Projecting Poultry Population in India – A Time Series Analysis
Arya S. Nair, M.Thirunavukkarasu, A.Serma Saravana Pandian, G.Senthilkumar and C.BalanDept. of Animal Husbandry Statistics and Computer Applications, Madras Veterinary College, TANUVAS, Chennai – 600007, Tamil Nadu.
Published in the Indian Veterinary Journal August 2020 : 97 (8) - pages 19 to 23(Received: June, 2020, Accepted: August, 2020)
Abstract
To exploit the potential benefits offered by Indian poultry sub-sector, there is a need to look into the future poultry population. Hence, this study attempted to project the future poultry population using time series analysis. Data on poultry population from 1950-51 to 2016-17 were collected from various reports of Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics (BAHS) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and subjected to time series analysis to identify the growth patterns and to project the future. Different projecting models were used and compared. Brown Exponential Smoothing was the best fit model. Using this model, it was found that the projected poultry population would be 887.65, 1123.48, 1359.31, and 1571.56 millions in 2020-21, 2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51, respectively.
Key Words: Poultry population, Projecting, Time Series Analysis, India